Could a third-party candidate spoil the pie?

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

I wonder? Will the 2012 Presidential election be a repeat of the one 20 years ago in 1992?

The players are different and it’s too early for a spoiler to enter the race. But there are rumblings.

As times passes, if the eventual Republican party nominee doesn’t suit “someone” or “some group” a spoiler candidate could emerge. And thatmight assure the re-election of Barack Obama.

Remember 1992? That was the year President George H.W. Bush was expected to be re-elected to office. In spite of his gaffe about “no new taxes,” he received his party’s nomination. But an undercurrent of dissatisfaction resulted in a spoiler.

That was the year Arkansas’ Bill Clinton surprised the experts when he became the Democrat’s nominee. But he was not the spoiler for Bush’s reelection.

That distinction went to a Texan. A man with lots of words which resonated with people. A man with a big mouth who attracted a big following. He became the darling of a crowd when he filed as an independent candidate. That man was Ross Perot.

It’s debatable that Perot’s candidacy skimmed enough votes to allow the Arkansas Governor to head to Pennsylvania Avenue. It’s arguable that it was Ross Perot who “beat” Bush. But a unifiedDemocratic party became the beneficiary, however arguable.

Could it happen again?

Could another dissatisfied Republican be a spoiler in 2012? A Texan? Whose name begins with a P? Or someone yet unknown? Time will tell.

Such a scenario may not happen. The Grand Old Party may mend its fences. The candidates may all lick their wounds and unite behind the one they choose. Of course that does not assure ultimate victory. But it does make for a cleaner race.

Third party candidates seldom draw enough support to change electionoutcomes. Alabama Governor George Wallace ran for the Presidency in 1968 as a State’s Rights candidate. He actually received votes from the electoral college. But not enough to affect the election outcome.

But what of 2012? There seem to be enough disgruntled persons, fed up with both parties, which could fuel an “Independent” to emerge, most likely from the Republican ranks. But since there is so much dissatisfaction with our president, does it stretch the imagination to see an independent emerge from the Democratic ranks?

In a fractured electionwith no candidate receiving a majority of electoral votes, the election process would be completed by the House of Representatives. Talk about fracture. It would not be pretty.

It will be fun to see how it all plays out. Perhaps “fun” is not an appropriate word. Bizarre is perhaps more appropriate, or tragic.

America certainly doesn’t need that. Especially in times like those of today. May cool heads and common sense prevail.

Dodie Evans is the editor emeritus of the Westside Eagle Observer and may be contacted by email at [email protected].

Opinion, Pages 6 on 12/14/2011