Is 2014 going to be a drought year?

Following last year, which yielded almost 10 inches of moisture above average, the first month of this year ended below the average January total.

Last year, 2013, saw a total of 55.25 inches of moisture measured at the Gravette NOAA station, exceeding the 44.87 inches 12-month average, according to records dating back to 1930.

This January only 1.16 inch of moisture was recorded compared with the 2.31 inch average. Comparative January totals for the past three years are: 2011, 0.25 inch; 2012, 1.31 inch; 2013, 3.08 inches.

The driest January, according to observer Elson Schmidt's records, occurred during World War II, in 1943, when 0 precipitation was measured at the Gravette station. Ironically, four months later, in May of that year, a record 16.48 inches of rainfall was recorded. That year ended with 44.17 inches, slightly below the average.

The second driest January was 1986 when 0.01 (one hundredth) inch was recorded. The year ended with 48.26 inches, some four inches above average.

What about 2014? Time will tell. The .23 inch of moisture from last Sunday's snowfall, Feb. 2, with more forecast for the coming weeks, is a start toward the 2.59 inches normally recorded during February.

The real question is: What is a normal year?