Forecasting with an asterisk attached

Announcement! Flash! Extra! Extra! Highway 59 through Gravette is scheduled to receive a hot mix overlay next summer. Motorists will welcome a smooth road compared to the deteriorating road surface, especially inside the city limits. But there is a caveat. Make that an asterisk. *If the funds are available.

That was the word Steve Lawrence, engineer with the Arkansas Highway and Transportation Department at Harrison, shared with me a few days ago.

He was hesitant to say "for sure" concerning the project; hence the asterisk. Work can't begin until the funds arrive.

He did add, however, the project will be an overlay from the Spavinaw Creek bridge south of Gravette north to a point near the Sulphur Springs rock quarry.

Lawrence said he is aware of the deterioration of the road during the past few months, but an overlay is the only cure for the problem rather than just patching holes. It is noted that, because of freezing temperatures, an overlay will have to wait for warmer weather -- and the necessary funds.

Making sure the project is a "first priority" for spring is something that needs monitoring, especially since the upcoming winter freezes are not going to make things better during the next four months.

This is being written before predicted snow is expected to fall in the area, added to the very cold November temps during last week. So, enough about asphalt; let's look at a subject that is always good for a few paragraphs: the weather.

Area old timers, as well as the rest of us, are surely scratching heads at the prolonged cold snap -- make that crackle and pop as well -- we've been treated to recently.

There are always cold days during November. But are there such prolonged -- two week -- unseasonably cold periods? The gas meters have been spinning; wood piles are showing dents; electric blankets have been dragged from the closets; and....

But, to repeat, there are always cold November days, such as the 6 degree temp that was recorded in Gravette on Nov. 13, 1986; but contrast that with the 80 degrees here on Nov. 13, 1955.

The temps normally range from 37 to 60 degrees in mid-November, but how about last year on Nov. 13 when the low was 20 and the high 50 degrees?

How about looking back a little further? Seventy-five years ago, Nov. 13, 1939, the low was 28 and the high 58 degrees. Fifty years ago, 1964, the temp spread was 38 to 75 degrees; and 25 years ago, 1989, it was balmy all day from 60 to 77 degrees.

Enough about the good old days. What about now and the rest of our winter season? I didn't, but did any of you, split open a persimmon seed or check the color and stripes on woolly worms for a scientific long-range forecast? I didn't even check the Farmer's Almanac. One thing is certain, weather during the next few months will be unsettled. That's the safe term weather forecasters fall back on -- make that their caveats or their asterisks.

The good news for now is the rains during October helped fill the ponds, kept the grass green and the lawn mowers roaring as we gained more than five inches on our 10-inch deficit during the first 10 months of the year. We still need to receive 11 inches during the remainder of the year to reach our 44-plus-inch average precipitation.

In the meantime, let's join the pro weather observers as they spill their spiel every day with caveats and asterisks, as we shake our heads and mutter a little bit. After all, isn't this about weather in the Ozarks, to say nothing about highway funding?

Dodie Evans is the editor/owner emeritus of the Gravette News Herald and keeper of the Gravette NOAA weather station. Opinions expressed are those of the author.

Editorial on 11/19/2014